After Vladimir Putin declared a partial mobilization on September 21, at least a quarter of Russia's car border checkpoints have reported an increase in traffic. In just nine days, at least 117,000 passenger cars left Russia through these checkpoints. Our data analysis shows how Russians flee mobilization to avoid being killed in the war.
According to the Russian Federal Customs Service, exit traffic has increased since September 21 at 29 of the 87 border checkpoints (this figure does not apply to Kazakhstan and Belarus: the customs service does not publish data for these countries). Total thereIs109 border checkpoints for cars in Russia.
Exit traffic has increased significantly at some of the smaller border checkpoints. Near the borders, traffic jams have developed for kilometers. At Verkhny Lars, a border checkpoint between Russia and Georgia, travelers had to bribe people to cross the checkpoint or navigate traffic jams. Some people sold places in queues, while some even left their cars behind to cross the border on foot. On the border with Kazakhstan, the Russians camped in the middle of the steppe around the highway.
Back on September 25, sources fromNovaya Gazeta. Europe estimatedthat up to 260,000 men had left Russia fleeing the mobilization.
Thousands of men queue at the border checkpoint in Mashtakovo, Samara region
A total of 25,400 passenger cars have entered Finland since 21 September. This is 1.4 times more than the number of people who crossed the border in the same period before the mobilization order. The largest increase in traffic (30-75%) was recorded at the border checkpoints in Svetogorsk, Brusnichnoye and Torfyanovka in St. Petersburg region. The Russian ambassador in Helsinkireportedthat around 60,000 Russians had entered Finland since 21 September.
The number of cars crossing the border and queuing at the checkpoint from September 1 to September 29
Finland was one of only two countries (along with Norway) to allow Russians to enter with a Schengen visa through land checkpoints after 21 September. However, the country laterannouncedthat it would close the border to the majority of Russians from September 30.
Car traffic from Russia to Norway has also increased significantly since the mobilization order (by 57%). But due to the remote location of the border posts, not so many cars crossed the border: just over 500 in total.
The number of cars crossing the border and queuing at the checkpoint from September 1 to September 29
Two days before Putin's mobilization order, the Baltic states had banned the entry of Russians on short-term Schengen visas, as if predicting what would happen next. Even so, car traffic at the border posts has increased considerably. On September 29, 210-300 cars were queuing at the Ludonka, Ubylinka and Burachki checkpoints.
It is Ukrainians, not Russians, who choose these border checkpoints, local media reports. "People are afraid of becoming a Russian citizen and losing the right to leave the country. In addition, they risk being mobilized into the Russian army," say residents of Pechory, a city in Russia's Pskov region,toldNews broadcast by time.
The number of cars crossing the border and queuing at the checkpoint from September 1 to September 29
Since the start of the mobilization in Russia, 1,600 cars have entered Latvia. A total of 9,300 cars have now been driven into the Baltic countries and Poland together.
A few days after the mobilization order, a humanitarian collapse was reported near the Verkhny Lars checkpoint on the Russian-Georgian border. Verkhny Lars is pretty much the only way out of Russia through the Caucasus: Land borders with Azerbaijan are closed due to COVID, and it is impossible to reach neighboring countries through Russian-controlled Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
A traffic jam at the border checkpoint at Verkhny Lars.
Source: Maxar
What is striking, however, is that car traffic in the vicinity of Verkhny Lars has barely increased since the start of the mobilization. Before September 21, an average of 1,470 cars per day crossed the Russian-Georgian border. After the mobilization order, the number increased by only 30 to 1,500 cars. The traffic jams may be due to the large increase in people crossing the border on scooters and bicycles. For several days, from September 26 to 29, border officials even allowed people to cross the border on foot.
The number of cars crossing the border and queuing at the checkpoint from September 1 to September 29
In addition, after the peak on September 25, when 1,890 cars had left Russia, border officials drastically reduced their throughput capacity. On September 27, the number of cars leaving Russia was halved to just 936 per day. On September 28, only 789 cars entered Georgia.
Since September 21, a total of 13,500 cars have crossed the Russian-Georgian border. On the morning of September 30, there were still 2,000 cars at the border.
Federal Customs does not publish border crossing data on Russia's borders with Kazakhstan and Belarus. These countries are part of the customs union, which means that there are no customs controls at the border.
Nevertheless, according to Kazakhstan, around 98,000 Russians entered the country in just over six days - from September 21 to 26. Eyewitness accounts suggest thousands of people are still queuing at the border.
A traffic jam at the Karaozek checkpoint in Russia's Astrakhan region on September 25
Kilometers of traffic jams have been recorded at the Mashtakovo, Karaozek, Sagarchin and Ozinki checkpoints. The head of the Krasnoyarsk district of the Astrakhan region of Russia, where the Karaozek checkpoint is located, has alreadyintroduceda state of high alertness. Local officials restricted traffic for foreign vehicles and vehicles from other regions heading to the border.
There are a total of 30 car checkpoints on the border between Russia and Kazakhstan. Here is aMapfrom everyone.
Residents of Russian Buryatia, Tuva and Zabaykalsky region flee for mobilization to Mongolia. An increase in traffic has been recorded after September 21, even at border checkpoints in remote locations, such as Shara-Sur in Tuva, where only one car was allowed every four days before the mobilization order.
The border with Mongolia in Kyakhta, Buryatia, on September 15 and 23
Source: Maxar
The number of cars crossing the border and queuing at the checkpoint from September 1 to September 29
The largest number of cars left Russia for Mongolia through the Kyakhta border checkpoint in Buryatia: more than 1,900 cars in 9 days. Traffic jams of up to 125 cars were reported at the border.According toaccording to estimates by journalists and volunteers, Buryatia is a Russian region with one of the largest numbers of citizens lost in the war in Ukraine. on 21 Septembermass mobilizationwas launched in the region: men eligible for mobilization were even visited at night by military commissars.
Almost 3,100 cars left Russia for Mongolia from September 21 to 29.
The borders are gradually closing to men eligible for mobilization, although there is not yet an official entry ban. On Sunday, September 25, the first reports trickled in of men who had been turned away at the border. Border officials refused to let some men through, citing mobilization orders. The guards are now consulting the lists provided by the regional conscription offices to decide whether to let someone through.
Mobile conscription offices have been set up at the busiest border checkpoints and issue call-up papers to the men sent off at the border.
On September 27, a design office was opened at 8:00 near the Verkhny Lars checkpoint on the border with Georgia. On the same day, another office was opened in Torfyanovka on the border with Finland. Those eligible for partial mobilization will be turned away at the border and receive summons papers immediately, 47news outletthe report. Another design board can beSetupsoon at the Karaozek checkpoint on the border with Kazakhstan.
In addition, the Russian regions with more border traffic have begun to limit access to passenger cars from other regions indefinitely. North Ossetia and the Astrakhan region have already implemented these measures. Meanwhile, the Verkhny Lars checkpoint on the Russian-Georgian border has banned entry for people crossing the border on foot, scooters and bicycles from September 29.
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